PHILIPCARB- PARALLEL CHANNEL BREAKOUT

TECHNICAL DESK CALL 

PHILIPCARB

STRONG BUY RANGE   212 --- 208

STOPLOSS  189

TARGET  240 --- 260

RATIONAL :
⏩ PARALLEL CHANNEL BREAKOUT

⏩ 89EMA SUPPORT 

⏩ PRICE VOLUME ACTION ABOVE 212 (CLS)

⏩ V SHAPE RECOVERY BREAKOUT ABOVE 185 (CLS)

MINDACORP- PRICE ACTION VOLUME BREAKOUT

SHORT TERM DELIVERY

MINDACORP

STRONG BUY RANGE  102 --- 96

STOPLOSS  87

TARGET  110 --- 120

RATIONAL :

➤ PRICE VOLUME BREAKOUT ON DAILY CHART

➤ RSI ABOVE 60 SUGGEST BUYING MOMENTUM

➤ MULTI MONTH BREAKOUT ABOVE 100 AFTER MARCH 2020

ABCAPITAL- CUP & HANDLE PATTERN

 SHORT TERM DELIVERY

ABCAPITAL  

STRONG BUY ABOVE 96 --- 92(AVG)

STOPLOSS  79

TARGET  115 --- 123 --- 143

LONG TERM TARGET : 240 (1YRS) 440 (3YRS) CAN BE MULTIBAGGER PORTFOLIO STOCK

RATIONAL :

➤ CUP & HANDLE PATTERN BREAKOUT ABOVE 96

➤ VWAP BREAKOUT ON DAILY CHART

➤ DOWNWARD SLOPPING TRENDLINE BREAKOUT

MAHINDCIE ASCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERN

SHORT TERM DELIVERY

MAHINDCIE

STRONG BUY RANGE  182 --- 176

STOPLOSS  162

TARGET   196 --- 204 --- 225

RATIONAL :

👉 VWAP BREAKOUT ABOVE 182
👉 ASCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERN BREAKOUT 
👉 RSI BREAKOUT ABOVE 50% MEDIUM RANGE
👉 MULTI MONTH BREAKOUT AFTER HUGE CONSOLIDATION

IDEA WEEKLY CHART BREAKOUT

SHORT TERM DELIVERY CALL

VODAFONE-IDEA

STRONG BUY RANGE  13 --- 11

STOPLOSS CLB  9

SHORT TERM TARGET 18 --- 20

MEDIUM TERM TARGET 25 --- 30 (6 MONTHS)

LONG TERM TARGET  40 (2YRS)

TECHNICAL WEEKLY CHART MULTI MONTHS BREAKOUT

PRSMJOHNSN PRICE-VOLUME BREAKOUT DAILY CHART

SHORT TERM DELIVERY CALL
PRSMJOHNSN LTD

STRONG BUY RANGE  90 --- 87 --- 82

STOPLOSS   68

SHORT TERM TARGET  102 --- 112 --- 124

LONG TERM TARGET    145 --- 225 (1YRS) --- 425 (2YRS)

TECHNICAL CHART : PRICE - VOLUME BREAKOUT  

IBREALEST DAILY CHART ANALYSIS

SHORT TERM DELIVERY CALL

IBREALEST LIMITED

STRONG BUY RANGE  78 --- 72

STOPLOSS   54

TARGET RANGE  90 --- 108

TIMEFRAME  : 8 WEEKS

TECHNICAL CHART : ROUND PATTERN BREAKOUT

OLECTRA DAILY CHART ANALYSIS

SHORT TERM DELIVERY CALL

OLECTRA GREENTECH LTD

STRONG BUY RANGE  103 --- 96 --- 87

STOPLOSS  75

TARGET RANGE  124 --- 146

TIMEFRAME : 8 WEEKS

TECHNICAL CHART - FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT

 

TATACOFFEE Daily Chart Analysis

Short Term Delivery Call

TATACOFFEE Strong Buy Range 105 --- 101

Stoploss  98

Target Range 110 --- 115 --- 120

Time Frame - 21days

HEG Daily Chart Analysis

 Short Term Delivery Call

HEG Strong Buy Range 777 --- 755

Stoploss 699

Target Range  850 --- 890 --- 950

Time Frame : 8 weeks

GoaCarbon Daily Chart Analysis

Short Term Deliver Call

GoaCarbon Strong Buy Above 530 Stoploss 510 Target 580---625

Graphical Presentation :

Technical Presentation : 

On Daily chart the counter had been in a very deep correction from September 2018 till date. If we draw a fibonacci Retracement from recent low of 396 (52W Low) to recent top of 850 than 38% retracement come at 577 which should be touch in coming days as per the study if it hold the low price. Also the counter has today tried to breakout from downward trendline resistance of 530 but it got failed to give close above it but looking to today's volume we can presume that in coming days it should resume its upward movement and should give bounce back to our suggested target zone.

ONGC Daily Chart Analysis

Short Term Delivery Call

ONGC Strong Buy Above 161 Stoploss 149 Target 167---175---190

Graphical Presentation :

Technical Presentation : 

On Daily chart the counter had been in a very deep correction from january 2018 till date. If we draw a fibonacci Retracement from recent low of 151.80 (52W Low) to recent top of 212 (52W High) than 38% retracement come at 175 which should be touch in coming days as per the study if it hold the low price. Also the counter has today tried to breakout from downward trendline resistance of 161 but it got failed to give close above it but looking to today's volume we can presume that in coming days it should resume its upward movement and should give bounce back to our suggested target zone.

IBVENTURE daily Chart Analysis

Short Term Delivery Call

IBVENTURE 

Strong Buy Above 410  Stoploss 389  Target 425---445---515

Graphical Presentation : 

Technical Presentation : 

On Daily chart the counter had been in a very deep correction from September 2018 till date. If we draw a Fibonacci Retracement from recent low of 324 to recent top of 819 than 38% Retracement come at 513 which should be touch in coming days as per the study if it hold the low price. Also the counter has recently this week tried to breakout from bottom level with increase in volume so we can presume that in coming days it should resume its upward movement and should give bounce back to our suggested target zone.

Cochin Shipyard IPO: Apply or Ignore?

Background:

Cochin Shipyard is a Government owned shipbuilding and ship repair company which was established in 1972. It enjoys  the Miniratna status and as its name suggests, is based out of Kochi in Kerala. It is the largest public sector shipyard in India.

Business & Clients:

• The company undertakes both defence and commercial orders
• Defence accounts for nearly 80% of the revenues
• Shipbuilding makes up ~ 80% of the revenues and the balance 20% comes from ship repairs
• Indian Navy and Indian Coast Guards make up 85% of the revenues
• The company is building India’s first IAC (Indigenous Aircraft Carrier)

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There is a high client concentration risk and the defence sector is totally at the mercy of the Government

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Future Prospects:

The company is enroute to build another IAC and also diversify into LNG Carriers (License obtained). Since most of the business comes from the defence sector, the company’s fortunes are tied up to the defence sector policies of the Government. We, as a firm policy, don’t predict and forecast Government policies.

The company currently has a healthy order book of ~ Rs 3,070 Crores which is nearly 1.4x of its FY17 revenues. The company’s CMD said that they turn down 20-30 vessels for repairs in a year due to lack of capacity. IPO proceeds will be utilized for capacity expansion by building a new dry dock and also by setting up a new ship repair facility.

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The company is cash rich (Rs 1,600 crores of cash). It is further raising funds amounting to Rs 1,443 crores by the IPO route. The planned capex is Rs 2,800 crores which spreads over to FY23.

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Financials:

• The company has grown its revenues at a CAGR of 7.95% between FY12 and FY17
• The company has grown its PAT at a CAGR of 15.75% between FY12 and FY17
• The company has demonstrated pricing power by expanding margins
• Other income makes up nearly 1/3rd of the EPS

Valuations:

At Rs 432, the market capitalization works out to ~ Rs 5,900 crores and the PE multiple 18.32x FY17 reported PAT. The company operates in a sector which has seen most companies crumble to debt (ABG Shipyard, Reliance, Bharti, etc.). However, Cochin Shipyard has stayed away from taking debt in its balance sheet and has remained profitable.

The company is well poised to benefit from its strong execution skills and steady order flow from the Government. It is operating in a cyclical business and there will be rough times in between.

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The allotment price for retail shareholders will be ~ Rs 411 (Rs 432 with a 5% discount). The company has a book value of Rs 179 per share and a cash per share value of Rs 165 which offers a decent margin of safety.

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Apply or Ignore:

Apply for the IPO with only 1 lot under one name as the issue will be oversubscribed and allotment at the most will be for a single lot. IPO market is generating a lot of buzz and one can expect a around 25% listing day gain from this IPO.


Disclaimer : Source - www.raghavbehani.com

Avenue Supermart (D-Mart) IPO Analysis

D-Mart IPO- King of Retail

Since the days of Harshad Mehta, RadhaKrishna Damani is known to be the man of Midas touch. He is the big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s Guru and a Ace Investor.

RadhaKrishna Damani started his own venture D-mart Retail 17 years back in 2000 and D-Mart is expected to be listed at 18,000 Crores of Valuation next month. The Current Grey Market Premium on this issue is 50% or 150 per share,In next 3 mins, you will definitely learn what makes D-mart so special.

Introduction to D-Mart – D Mart is third largest in the sector after Reliance Retail and Kishore Biyani’s Future Group. D Mart is one of the few profit making grocery retailers, known for low-priced products and a low-cost business model. 53% of D-Marts revenue comes from Food, 21% from FMCG and 26% General Merchandise and Apparel. Business model is easy i.e. to retail quality goods at competitive prices. The majority of products stocked by them are everyday products forming part of basic rather than discretionary spending. D-Mart had 112 Stores at End of FY2016 with presence in 8 States and 41 cities, Maharashtra contributed 63% of revenue whereas Gujarat contributes 19%.

Why is D-Mart so Successful? (Moat Around the Business)

#Factor 1- Ownership of all Properties – Avenue Supermarts currently owns all its properties which eliminates rental cost. Rental costs typically account ~ 3 % – 8% for peers.  It operates predominantly on an ownership model (including long-term lease arrangements, where lease period is more than 30 years and the building is owned by it) rather than on a rental model.

#Factor 2- Revenue Per Square Feet –  This is the real big difference between a great business and a mediocre one. A Great business sweats its assets a lot more than the mediocre one. D-mart, Reliance Retail and Future Retail (Big Bazaar) have broadly the same product portfolio but D-mart does sales of 28,136 per Sq. feet whereas Reliance and Future do half of that at 13,901 Per Sq Feet and 12,914 Respectively.

#Factor 3 – Inventory Turnover – If there was one Ratio that we could have looked at and judged a Retail franchise, that would be Inventory Turnover. D-mart kills competition here, its like the Zara of FMCG Retail.  D-mart Inventory Turnover is 14.18 (26 days) v/s 4.9x (75 Days) for Future Retail.

#Factor 4 – Shift from Unorganized to Organized – We expect a very large shift from unorganized sector to organized sector, Organized retail is expected to grow at 21% whereas unorganized retail is expected to grow at 11.7%. We believe post GST, the pace of shift from unorganized to organized will be faster which will benefit D-Mart.

#Factor 5 – Growth led by Same Store Growth Plus Expansion – D-Mart’s Same store growth in last 3 years has been an astonishing with 26%, 22% and 21% for FY 2014,2015, and 2016. They plan to add 2.1 Million Square feet or about 70 new stores by 2020 (Assuming every story is 30-35k Sq Feet). D-mart has been the fastest growing retailer and increased revenues from 2200 Crores in 2012 to 8,600 crores in 2016

#Factor 6 – Gross Margins – D-mart has the lowest Gross margin among all Players and still has the highest operating margin, making it a Moat. In a commodity business, the most efficient player wins, D-mart has show how selling its goods with economies of scale makes a it superb business model. D-Marts Gross margins are only 52% whereas Future Group its 65%, showing D-mart is passing the cost benefit to its customers and selling it cheaper than peers which ensures higher revenue per sq. feet.

#Factor 7 – Employee Cost – D-Mart has the Least number of Employees per square foot i.e. 1 employee for 800 Square feet whereas competitors have 1 employee for every 400-500 Sq. Feet (you don’t need someone to help you buy Maggi, do you?).  This makes D-mart far more efficient compared to competition.

#Factor 8 – Return on Equity – By now i am sure you understood D-mart’s business model,You might be thinking that D-mart is a asset heavy business as it doesn’t rent properties rather it buys them, but D-mart has shown that even after having a very heavy asset base it has managed to deliver 20%+ Return on equity.

#Factor 9 – Comparison with Global Peers – D-Marts model is similar to that of Walmart, with a lot of owned stores, very high inventory turnover and low debt on balance sheet.Costco a members only wholesaler which has created immense value in last decade also a model of Economies of Scale. Zara and Walmart have proven that the only way to great value in retail is sell cheap and increase your Inventory turnover.

Stallion’s View – D-Mart is a Consumer facing business who has cost leadership as it pays all his suppliers within 15 days against a cash discount, passes this cost benefit to customers with lowest gross margins in the Industry at 52%. D-Mart has been Smart with its cost management compared to its peers, and even after being a asset heavy business model its ROE is more than 20%+ .D- Mart is Expected to come with a Valuation of 18,000 or about 40x FY2017 PE. D-mart has a strong Business model, Longevity and Growth on its side. The organized Retail is expected to grow at 21% for next 10 years, which ensures D-Mart won’t trade at cheap valuations for a long long time.

We Recommend a Subscribe on Avenue Supermart IPO (D-mart) and Believe it will list at 400/Share plus atleast.

Report by Stallion Asset on D-Mart

RSSOFTWARE WEEKLY CHART

STRONG BUY RSSOFTWARE above 96 STOPLOSS 70 TARGET 150---200 (PURELY DELIVERY)

GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION:

TECHNICAL PRESENTATION:

Since start of the year 2015 stock has corrected from 300 level to low of 58 level in mid Jan 2016 where the counter has find some support level and from last 11 month the counter is consolidating in the price rage of 60 to 100 level. Further, the RSI Oscillator on weekly chart is indicating positive divergence from start of November month which is also coincide with MACD parameter too. So considering the above technical parameter on weekly chart we are advising our clients/Traders/Investors to but the stock after due diligence.

TVS ELECTRONICS LTD DAILY CHART

BUY TVSELECT ABOVE 176 STOPLOSS 150 TARGET 250---300 (PURELY DELIVERY )

GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION:

TECHNICAL PRESENTATION:

On daily chart, recently stock has given a sharp rally from 100 to 231 within just 14 trading session which is spectacular gain in-spite of market under performance due to demonetisation by Modi led NDA government. so if we draw an Retracement from 100 to 231 level, after touching recent new high now the stock is in profit booking mood and has taken an support at 38% retracement level which coincide at 177 on close basis. Thus we are again advising our clients to reenter if they have missed first upmove rally in this counter.

LUPIN DAILY CHART

Buy LUPIN 1480---1490  Stoploss 1420 Target 1600--1650 Duration- 4--7 Days

Graphical Presentation:

Technical specification: Lupin on daily chart had formed a double bottom in recent last three trading session from where it has given strong up move with good support of rising volume above daily average so we can expect the upmove will get extend till the price hold level of 1520 on closing basis. Also on RSI parameter it is on rising upward above 50 level in coming days so there is still lot of upside is left on daily chart. So Traders & Investors are advised to trade as per there risk appetite after consulting his Financial Advisor.

Justdial Daily Retracement Analysis EOD

JUSTDIAL LTD

Buy Justdial 465---470  Stoploss  446  Target 554---621 Duration-2Months

Remarks: Justdial on daily chart had recently made a top of 904 in may month from where it is continuously sliding to downward and forming lower low and lower high pattern and is now in this month it is trying to consolidate for sometime after making a low of 446 in august this month and now it is showing some sign of retracement on upside. so if we calculate 23% retracement from high of 904 it comes to 554 and 38% retracement comes to 621 where this stock should go on upside in coming 2 months.

SBIN Daily Chart Gann Line Analysis

Technical Desk Call : 05 May 2016

Strong Buy SBIN 179---175  Stoploss CB 165  Target 189---205  Duration: 20 Days

Justification: SBIN on daily chart looking very weak from last seven trading session where it had been cooling off from 200 level till today also it has been closed in lower side at 179.95 on close. we are expecting this counter to get strong support in coming days around 165 on close basis. On Technical parameter if we plot a study called " GANN SPEED LINE " than the stock should found support around 179 to 175 in coming trading session and also we are predicting RSI indicator should also support the chart pattern around 30 value.